Uncertain 2 - our costly false comforts

In the first part of this post, Uncertain - about these uncertain times, I explored a contradiction at the centre of our humanity: wanting to be certain in an uncertain world.

Humans do whatever we can to avoid acknowledging the inherent uncertainty in our lives: cocooning ourselves in safe enclosures, limiting our lives, or planning obsessively to control the future.

We equate 'uncertain' with 'unsafe', to which our primal reaction is to run or make things safe again.

Our response when we perceive danger is emotional and compelling. Only rarely are our actions driven by an objective or factual assessment of information. We can even feel fear of imagined dangers, when there is no imminent threat. Being told there really is no monster under the bed does not necessarily soothe our fear, and we continue to seek reassurance. We need to feel safe.

We do the same with the inherent uncertainty of life. The driver of our actions is emotion: we want a FEELING of certainty and safety. We want to FEEL reassured that things are certain and safe.

This means we are extremely vulnerable to any information that stirs our feelings of uncertainty and insecurity, regardless of actual threats, or to people who promise us certainty and safety in the face of real, imagined and even concocted threats.

Perversely, the emotional comfort of 'false' certainty is often more compelling than any facts of certainty and safety.

Every successful politician, marketing executive, con artist and cult leader knows this. And they exploit us with this knowledge.

Part 2 looks at the implications of our need to feel things are certain, and therefore 'safe', and what false promises we will happily accept in order not to feel the fear of uncertainty.

Experiencing discomfort or distress warps our interpretation of safety.

There can be a massive difference between the facts of increasing certainty and safety, and the perception - the subjective feeling of certainty and safety.

Most work in this area is about people's assessment of safety, for example the relative safety of driving versus flying. The data show clearly that flying is safer. But more people say they FEEL safer when they are driving, presumably because they are inside a 'safe' enclosure and they are the one in control of what happens. (Unfortunately, some drivers, full of an inflated sense of control, take irrational actions on the roads that make all of us less safe.)

We never lose that need to FEEL safe. Source 

Our strong drive to FEEL safe leads us into irrationality all the time.

For example, the run on toilet paper in the supermarkets in March was not sparked by a paper shortage, but by the need to do SOMETHING, ANYTHING to alleviate the awful feeling of fear of uncertainty in a rapidly changing society. The panic buying was irrational and caused actual shortages of toilet paper for other people. But for a short time, a spare room full of toilet paper increased some people's sense of safety.

FEELING safe can be only indirectly related to BEING safe. For example, various security measures have been implemented in response to extremist attacks in the last two decades. We accept them as necessary, but whether such actions make us actually safer is not known (or even tested).

The real aim of these measures is to increase our FEELING of safety, to reassure us. Much decisive government response is merely 'security theatre' or 'security performance' which achieves little. It is possible, in fact, that the money spent on some forms of high profile 'security theatre', such as checking hand luggage to limit the amount of fluid taken onboard, might be better spent on less visible measures that might actually make us safer, such as appropriate community development with disenfranchised young men.

Click to enlarge. Source. 

It's not just regarding physical safety that we accept untested, vague or even false reassurances so that we have a FEELING of safety.

We also tend to accept reassurance of certainty and safety from anyone brash or confident enough to promise it.

Our unwillingness to accept our own unpleasant feelings (or sit with the discomfort) means we are more than happy to borrow someone else's certainty.

This leaves us vulnerable to manipulation. We want certainty so much, that we will accept false certainty from those who are either deluding themselves about what they are offering (e.g. The Rapture), or maliciously taking advantage of this core human vulnerability to benefit themselves (e.g. Ponzi schemes).

It seems there is no shortage of such people.

The strong populist leader is never uncertain!

Contemporary politics is overrun by brash men who achieve self-advancement through actions based on responding to the public's emotional reactions - populism - rather than on ideals or evidence. These leaders work hard to promote an image of being in control, being certain, not making changes. We sure don't like our leaders to express uncertainty - this will make us feel anxious, because we rely on them to soothe our fear of uncertainty. Doing a 'back flip' is one of the worst political sins!

These populist leaders know that our assessment of risk is based on subjective perceptions and feelings rather than on the reality of physical threats. They know we want to feel safe and for things to be certain.

Populist leaders peddle false certainty about things over which we have limited control: our family's safety, the economy, our jobs and the future.

They do this in two ways.

Just like 'security theatre', politics is replete with 'certainty theatre' in circumstances when there is no certainty at all. With confident statements using numbers ('number theatre'), simplistic graphs ('graph theatre'), and projections ('statistics theatre'), politicians aim to convince us that they have it all sorted and fixed, and we can leave it to them now. The implied precision of numbers and equations about entirely uncertain things (projected disease spread, changes in the economy, risk of terrorism) serves to distract us from the factual lack of certainty. 'Certainty theatre' is about showmanship, about reducing fear, about reassuring the masses, not about facts or science. The politician's confidence communicates: 'Things are certain, I am in control; you can feel safe. Now get back to your shopping'.

Many of us opt out of politics entirely: it's all sure and certain, they will look after it (we agree); or it's all deliberately confounded and unclear but what can we do anyway (we disagree). That's a bit convenient for some, I think.

A second method used by politicians is to fuel and re-direct people's fear about an uncertain future onto politically convenient scapegoats. It is easy for populist demagogues to blame our existential distress and fear on immigrants, Muslims, greenies, protestors, dole-bludgers, even 'faceless' public servants - whoever can provide a handy target for our underlying fears. It sure feels good to hate the RIGHT people and to get rid of uncertainty.

The flip side of personalising control of the future (plan, plan, plan!), is personalising blame for lack of control that 'logically' must be behind any personal problems.

Source: AZ Quotes

It's also easy for politicians to blame the 'undeserving poor' for being a burden on society. Because of Western society's delusion that we can make things certain, it also pushes a belief that if something bad happens to you, then it's because you didn't take care, didn't plan well enough or put the effort in. It's your fault. We can thus be persuaded to regard vulnerable people living in poverty, homelessness, unemployment, domestic violence, or mental health issues as somehow to blame for their situation.

This belief recently featured in the sudden widespread job losses associated with shutting down the economy for health reasons. We saw discussion of 'the deserving poor', those who had lost their jobs due to circumstances out of their control - a global pandemic. We accept they are victims of 'these uncertain times' and therefore deserve public assistance. In contrast, the general run of the mill unemployed person is somehow to blame for whatever vagaries and uncertainties of their life (e.g. ill health, lack of educational opportunity, lack of encouragement, etc.) lead to their place in the unemployment queue, and therefore they are 'undeserving' and should just get off their backsides… and start controlling their future, I guess.

Much government policy on welfare, refugees, etc. is framed around blaming people for circumstances beyond their control. Many of us in currently more fortunate circumstances agree 'they' should have done better to avoid their problems. We accept punitive public policy because we share the certainty delusion, or we borrow the false certainty of our political leaders.

Just imagine if our fear of uncertainty didn't make us so easy to manipulate.

Advertisers are expert at manipulating our fear of uncertainty as well. 

Marketing 'sells' the myth of complete control over your future through any number of products you simply must buy. The new car gives you power and status; the mouthwash gives you confidence and freshness; the newest device gives you easy access to the right information and 'the edge'.

Source: Calvin and Hobbes Comics on the socials 

The preposterous claims about these products and services work because they target our vulnerabilities and fears. They rest on a false promise of control and certainty through consumption. And we sure want to buy some of that! Indeed, a purchase can provide a short term 'hit' of control and competence (see Creative - of course you are) - we feel reassured and satisfied. But that soon fades. Then, another advertisement subtly feeds that old fear of an uncertain future into our awareness. Luckily, the ad also provides the solution: buy this product and you will be saved from that awful feeling.

I'm not talking about buying what you need, but the aspect of advertising which works to manufacture a 'need' through manipulating our normal human fears of embarrassment, social exclusion, failure, etc., but ultimately, our fear of uncertainty and insecurity. (Yes, 'sex sells'; that's just another form of false certainty really.)

There's nothing we can buy that will make our lives certain; we should stop listening to advertising's claims that there is.

'Certainty cults' are the various strongly held belief systems that explain the world for a humanity unwilling to face uncertainty.

Each of us holds beliefs that provide a way to understand the world. We all have a set of beliefs that simplify the world - making it more predictable and thus safer and more certain. Some believe god made the world and has a plan for us, some believe that a secretive elite controls world events, some believe that a free market economy is the natural order.

Problems lie not so much in having a belief system, but when those who lead or follow a particular belief become absolutists: dogmatic and defensive. Beliefs become what I call 'certainty cults' due to an inflexible attachment to the certainty they provide.

These include ideologies, many religions, scientism (not science), 'traditional values', and conspiracies theories. Although quite different, they each provide a set of beliefs and ideas that explain why things happen, why people do what they do. They provide certainty in an otherwise frighteningly uncertain world.

Well, they provide a FEELING of certainty and safety, not actual certainty. They allow us to deny that uncertainty remains permanently set at a rating of severe to extreme.

Source: rawforbeauty.com

Beliefs about the world explain the uncertainties of good, evil, suffering and affluence, and sometimes offer future certainties as compensation, like a heavenly paradise. Those beliefs that put someone else in charge also provide an escape clause: 'God/The Illuminati/The market works in mysterious ways'. Things remain certain and safe, but only 'they' know quite how. (Not all belief systems or religions are open to 'certainty cults'. For example, Buddhism focuses on the contradiction of humanity's desire for certainty in an uncertain world, and on learning to live with discomfort in order to live well and authentically. It starts with the premise that nothing is under our control really.)

Your belief system may seem deeply personal, but it is primarily social - shared belief systems serve to make other people more predictable. The positive aspect of a shared belief system is that it enables diverse people to live and work together. The negative is that people will argue and fight and even go to war to defend their version of certainty. People might say they are defending god, truth and justice, freedom, the workers, the family, etc., however, they are actually defending their personal certainty delusion.

Our various belief systems are fundamentally important to us because they reduce the distressing emotions that uncertainty generates. No wonder some people do irrational and self-destructive things to defend their beliefs. No wonder some religions forbid questions. No wonder some consider they alone are correct in understanding the world. Their beliefs are their protection against the awful and fearsome reality of uncertainty.

Some are willing to go to extremes to avoid the feeling of uncertainty. And others will manipulate this willingness.

Under the 'flag' of their certainty cult, leaders of compounds and countries have persuaded their people to go to war for oil, for the leader's ego, for territory, for wealth.

The various certainty cults offer us a comforting delusion. And, as Oliver Burkeman says in The Antidote, we humans can go to extraordinary lengths, even fatal ones, to avoid feeling the fear of uncertainty.

In summary, life remains inherently uncertain, no matter what our political leaders, advertisers, or those pushing the various belief systems promise.

Our natural desire for security and to rid life of its inherent uncertainty leads us to irrational actions and being manipulated and fooled.

Could we avoid these awful implications of our desire to avoid uncertainty? 

Well, we can't stop our basic drive to feel safe, it's 'wired' in. That is reality and we must start from there.

We can't stop the discomfort that uncertainty generates, but we could become more practised at living with it as I explored in Part 1. Numerous authors have suggested the resolution to our distress is to learn to live with what we judge to be a bad feeling, to accept it and reduce our compulsion to remove it. We could begin to see that uncertainty does not have to be so overwhelmingly distressing.

Finally, we can't stop shysters and demagogues trying to manipulate us for their own ends, but we could learn to protect ourselves from being inveigled by false promises of certainty. We can be alert to attempts to exploit this aspect of our humanity. We can pause when someone offers us certainty and consider just why they are performing 'certainty theatre'. What do they stand to gain? Are we giving away our own power and autonomy when we cling to the proffered feeling of certainty - nothing but a delusion?

As a society, we should be suspicious of anyone that promises us certainty, and resist the desire to give other people control over us so we can feel better. We can forgive ourselves when we are taken in, we are only human after all and fear is a strong emotion, but we can learn, and limit the times it happens.

It all rests with learning to sit more calmly with our fear of uncertainty. 

This is what we need to be less easily manipulated, less keen to accept false promises of certainty, less willing to give away our own power.

So, in both the private and public sphere, the ideal is to experience the fear of uncertainty without letting that fear dictate your actions.

We are out of practice, so it will take a while to relearn. It's not at all easy, but my own efforts confirm that unpleasant and anxious feelings start to dissipate when you allow them to be felt fully and don't rush to some task to avoid or dampen them down. I'm also noticing events of 'certainty theatre' more often and my 'certainty delusion radar' goes up when someone seems to be trying to stoke my fears.

For each of us, it's time to be alert to our emotions, our thoughts, our first impulses. It's high time to face discomfort and our fear of uncertainty - this is the way the world is, and our 'times' are no more uncertain than others. We can nevertheless have meaningful and happy lives, and we can avoid being manipulated by false promises.

Learning to live and flourish amidst the inherent uncertainty of the world could change our politics forever.

I think it is a most worthwhile thing to do in these so-called 'uncertain times.'



References

• Ahuja, Anjana. (2020). Boris Johnson’s Covid-19 threat alert system is a parody of mathematical precision. The New Statesman, 11 May 2020. Quote: '...“number theatre” [is the] elegant phrase ... coined last week by David Spiegelhalter, Winton professor of the public understanding of risk at Cambridge University, to describe the oddly precise numbers being thrown out daily.'
• Burkeman, Oliver. (2013). The Antidote. Happiness for people who can't stand positive thinking. Text Publishing Co. Australia.
• Cash, Rosanne. (2017). The Universe in Verse 2017. https://www.brainpickings.org/the-universe-in-verse/
• Watts, Alan. (2011, originally printed 1951) The Wisdom of Insecurity. Random House Inc. USA. Images used under creative commons licence

Images, used under Creative Commons Licence

• Linus and the security blanket by Jin Kim (2010-2020). [CC BY-NC-ND]
• The Ponzi pyramid by Calura (2015) [CC BY-NC-ND]
• Chomsky quote AZ quotes
• Calvin and Hobbes Facebook 7 May, 2019
• Relax Nothing is under control from Meme generator Raw for Beauty [Public Domain]
• Other images by the author